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Projecting Ice-Affected Streamflow by Extended Kalman Filtering

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers CRREL
Lansing, Michigan 1997

David J. Holtschlag, Charles T. Parker, and Mohinder S. Grewal


Abstract

An extended Kalman filter was developed to automate the real-time projection of ice-affected streamflow, based on routine measurements of stage and air temperature and the relation between stage and flow during open-water conditions. The form accommodates three dynamic modes of ice effects: sudden formation-ablation, stable ice condition, and final elimination. The filter was applied to historical data from two long-term streamflow-gaging stations. The filters were stable and parameters converged for both stations, producing estimates that were highly correlated with and linearly related to published streamflow values in a log-transformed metric. At St. John River at Dickey, Maine, logarithms of projected streamflow values were within 8% of the logarithms of published values 87.2% of the time and within 15% of published values 96.6% of the time during periods of ice effects. At Platte River at North Bend, Nebraska, logarithms of projected streamflow values were within 8% of the logarithms of published daily values 90.7% of the time and within 15%, 97.7% of the time during ice-affected conditions. This form of the extended Kalman filter allows estimation of ice-affected streamflow at other gaging stations by adjusting filter parameters to site-specific conditions.

Contact:

U.S. Geological Survey, 6520 Mercantile Way, Suite 5, Lansing, MI 48911, dholtschlag@usgs.gov

Cooperator:

This study was done in cooperation with the Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

Publication
Holtschlag,D.J., Parker, C.T., and Grewal, M.S., 1997, Projecting Ice-Affected Streamflow by Extended Kalman Filtering: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers CRREL, 46 p.

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