U.S. Army Corps of Engineers CRREL
Lansing, Michigan 1997
David J. Holtschlag, Charles T. Parker, and Mohinder S. Grewal
An extended Kalman filter was developed to automate the real-time projection of ice-affected streamflow, based on routine measurements of stage and air temperature and the relation between stage and flow during open-water conditions. The form accommodates three dynamic modes of ice effects: sudden formation-ablation, stable ice condition, and final elimination. The filter was applied to historical data from two long-term streamflow-gaging stations. The filters were stable and parameters converged for both stations, producing estimates that were highly correlated with and linearly related to published streamflow values in a log-transformed metric. At St. John River at Dickey, Maine, logarithms of projected streamflow values were within 8% of the logarithms of published values 87.2% of the time and within 15% of published values 96.6% of the time during periods of ice effects. At Platte River at North Bend, Nebraska, logarithms of projected streamflow values were within 8% of the logarithms of published daily values 90.7% of the time and within 15%, 97.7% of the time during ice-affected conditions. This form of the extended Kalman filter allows estimation of ice-affected streamflow at other gaging stations by adjusting filter parameters to site-specific conditions.
Contact:
U.S. Geological Survey, 6520 Mercantile Way, Suite 5, Lansing, MI 48911, dholtschlag@usgs.gov
Cooperator:
This study was done in cooperation with the Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
Publication
Holtschlag,D.J., Parker, C.T., and Grewal, M.S., 1997, Projecting Ice-Affected
Streamflow by Extended Kalman Filtering: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers CRREL, 46
p.
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